What It Means for the Hospitality Industry

If you’ve noticed fewer Canadian guests lately, you’re not imagining it. A sharp decline in cross-border travel from Canada to the U.S. is making waves—especially in tourism-dependent regions.

While the data below comes from Vermont, the implications are relevant across the U.S., particularly for destinations that historically rely on Canadian visitors.

What the Numbers Are Telling Us

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Recent insights shared by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing (via the Vermont Chamber of Commerce) reveal a concerning trend:

Auto Travel Is Declining

Canadian-resident return trips to the U.S. by car dropped 31.9% in March 2025 compared to the same month in 2024. That marks three consecutive months of year-over-year declines in cross-border auto travel.

Vermont Border Crossings Reflect the Trend

• January 2025: +9.5% (brief spike)
• February: –7.4%
• March: –32.7%

The March plunge is particularly notable and aligns with the national trend.

Spending by Canadian Visitors Is Slipping

In February:

• Canadian cardholder visits to Vermont: down 16%
• Total Canadian visitor spending: down 23%

This is especially impactful given that Canadians account for nearly 70% of all international tourism spending in the state.

Travel Intentions Have Shifted

According to a recent Canadian survey:

• 37% of respondents are less likely to visit the U.S. in the next 12 months compared to a year ago.
• 31% have already canceled or delayed their 2025 U.S. trips.
• Another 22% say they’re planning to cut back on travel.

So, What Can We Do?

Here’s the silver lining:
Despite the downturn, 48% of surveyed Canadians who planned to travel in 2025 say their plans haven’t changed. This is the audience we need to reach.

Practical Takeaways for Tourism Professionals:

• Adjust your messaging to acknowledge current realities—consider highlighting value, flexibility, and convenience.
• Refocus marketing spend on channels that perform well with Canadian audiences.
• Leverage loyalty from returning guests—reach out to past Canadian visitors with direct email campaigns or incentives.
• Monitor regional intent trends—some provinces may rebound faster than others.

Final Thoughts

While fewer Canadians are crossing the border, not all hope is lost. This shift is a reminder that traveler behavior is changing—and so should our strategies.

Tourism professionals who are agile, data-aware, and proactive will be in the best position to engage the Canadian travelers who are still planning trips—and fill the gap with new visitor segments where needed.

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